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Old 12-11-2012, 17:17   #21
certifiedfunds
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skyhook View Post
Laid a bit of self-imposed 'shock-n-awe' on one of my liberal/progressive associates today.

Asked her what the projected debt is to be.. $16 Trillion, says she with out a flutter of the eyelid.

And, what is the present population of the USA, I asked? About 315 Million, says she.

Ok, I said, now divide that $16 Trillion by 315 Million.. what you will get is the amount of the debt each and every American owes.

Out came the wee electronic device... OPEN went the eyes ... discussion closed.
Except every American doesn't owe it. Only a small % of us owe it.

Otherwise I'd like to settle up now please.
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Old 12-11-2012, 17:23   #22
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Except every American doesn't owe it. Only a small % of us owe it.

Otherwise I'd like to settle up now please.

Good point... I wish now I had pointed out to her that roughly 50% of Americans do not actually pay much if any tax.
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Old 12-11-2012, 17:37   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skyhook View Post
Good point... I wish now I had pointed out to her that roughly 50% of Americans do not actually pay much if any tax.
That's exactly why they view it as our problem ...

.
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Old 12-11-2012, 18:01   #24
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Originally Posted by JBnTX View Post
There's only one solution to debt debt debt debt debt debt debt,
and that's tax tax tax tax tax tax tax.

...and not just the rich, but everybody and everything.
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Old 12-11-2012, 18:12   #25
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""The actual liabilities of the federal government—including Social Security, Medicare, and federal employees' future retirement benefits—already exceed $86.8 trillion, or 550% of GDP. For the year ending Dec. 31, 2011, the annual accrued expense of Medicare and Social Security was $7 trillion"

Depending on who you want to believe...other sources have numbers much worse than yours.

Debt Clock puts unfunded liabilities north of $121 trillion

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Laurence Kotlikoff, a former Reagan advisor, put the number around $211 Trillion.

http://www.npr.org/2011/08/06/139027...y-211-trillion

The federal government's net worth at the end of 2011 was a negative $70 trillion..or about $220K per citizen or $660K per tax paying citizen...you and your wife have a spare 1.2 million hanging around.

The numbers at this point are meaningless since default seems to be the only solution at this point. Some feel we could print/inflate our way out of it....but I think default will more likely happen or people will just no longer accept dollars for payment having the dollar crash.
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Last edited by pugman; 12-11-2012 at 18:13..
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Old 12-11-2012, 18:14   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JBnTX View Post
There's only one solution to debt debt debt debt debt debt debt,
and that's tax tax tax tax tax tax tax.

...and not just the rich, but everybody and everything.
No, that's not the ONLY solution... there are others.

My bet is on hyperinflation and severe devaluation of our currency, the resultant dropping of the dollar as the world's currency standard (further devaluing the dollar), and finally, an attempt to change our style of governance resulting in far less freedom (you know, in exchange for work and bread).
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Old 12-11-2012, 18:26   #27
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No, that's not the ONLY solution... there are others.

My bet is on hyperinflation and severe devaluation of our currency, the resultant dropping of the dollar as the world's currency standard (further devaluing the dollar), and finally, an attempt to change our style of governance resulting in far less freedom (you know, in exchange for work and bread).
I'm betting they will ultimately resort to extreme inflation, but not hyperinflation.

That's because hyperinflation can only be sustained for 2 or 3 years max. After that, everyone just walks away from a currency that has been gang-raped and left for dead.

Our real budget problems extend far into the future beyond 3 years... Socialist inSecurity and Medicare especially.
Those obligations extend 40 - 50 years down the road.

The econ brainiacs at the Federal Reserve understand all this quite well.

When we're deep into the pain of extreme inflation (20%+ ?) it will feel "hyper" anyway.
It's gonna be interesting.
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Last edited by Atlas; 12-11-2012 at 18:27..
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Old 12-11-2012, 18:39   #28
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Originally Posted by Atlas View Post
I'm betting they will ultimately resort to extreme inflation, but not hyperinflation.

That's because hyperinflation can only be sustained for 2 or 3 years max. After that, everyone just walks away from a currency that has been gang-raped and left for dead.

Our real budget problems extend far into the future beyond 3 years... Socialist inSecurity and Medicare especially.
Those obligations extend 40 - 50 years down the road.

The econ brainiacs at the Federal Reserve understand all this quite well.

When we're deep into the pain of extreme inflation (20%+ ?) it will feel "hyper" anyway.
It's gonna be interesting.
Good point... either way, it will be significant devaluation of our currency. And either way, it will hurt, and the lower class will suffer the most - regardless of the tax rate on "the wealthy".
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Old 12-11-2012, 18:44   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atlas View Post
I'm betting they will ultimately resort to extreme inflation, but not hyperinflation.

That's because hyperinflation can only be sustained for 2 or 3 years max. After that, everyone just walks away from a currency that has been gang-raped and left for dead.

Our real budget problems extend far into the future beyond 3 years... Socialist inSecurity and Medicare especially.
Those obligations extend 40 - 50 years down the road.

The econ brainiacs at the Federal Reserve understand all this quite well.

When we're deep into the pain of extreme inflation (20%+ ?) it will feel "hyper" anyway.
It's gonna be interesting.
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Originally Posted by QNman View Post
No, that's not the ONLY solution... there are others.

My bet is on hyperinflation and severe devaluation of our currency, the resultant dropping of the dollar as the world's currency standard (further devaluing the dollar), and finally, an attempt to change our style of governance resulting in far less freedom (you know, in exchange for work and bread).
It will never get this far...

Medicare will exceed $1 trillion by 2022 or double in the next ten years...

http://www.fiercehealthfinance.com/s...020/2012-03-14

The federal government is historically very optimistic when it comes to income.

2000 tax revenues were $2.025 Trillion
ten years later in 2010 2.162 trillion

http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxfa....cfm?Docid=200

If you really want to laugh (or be very scared)...look at what they are estimating by 2017...nearly double 2010's tax receipts?

The point is expenses ARE increasing much faster than revenues.

We will never get to the point of hyperinflation where a gallon of gas costs $50 or a loaf of bread $10...

People will no longer start accepting it and it will simply collapse.

I wonder what color the new money will be?
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Old 12-11-2012, 18:56   #30
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It will never get this far......

I wonder what color the new money will be?
You're correct of course.

About 20 years ago I attended an informal meeting of some folks who were concerned about this.
OK... it was a "constitutional study group", aka a tax-protest group.

They had a guest in his late 50's who was from some east European nation, don't remember where.
He told us to always be on alert for any new currency design, such as different color bills etc.

He said that the typical pattern in many eastern nations had been to introduce the new bills at an exchange of 1-to-1, then in 2 or 3 weeks late on a Friday afternoon announce that on Monday the rate would be 10-to-1, or worse.

Something to consider..
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Last edited by Atlas; 12-11-2012 at 18:57..
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Old 12-11-2012, 18:59   #31
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You're correct of course.

About 20 years ago I attended an informal meeting of some folks who were concerned about this.
OK... it was a "constitutional study group", aka a tax-protest group.

They had a guest in his late 50's who was from some east European nation, don't remember where.
He told us to always be on alert for any new currency design, such as different color bills etc.

He said that the typical pattern in many eastern nations had been to introduce the new bills at an exchange of 1-to-1, then in 2 or 3 weeks late on a Friday afternoon announce that on Monday the rate would be 10-to-1, or worse.

Something to consider..
Argentina anyone?
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Old 12-11-2012, 19:12   #32
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It'll be interesting to hear what the Ben Bernak has to say tomorrow.
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Old 12-11-2012, 19:38   #33
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It'll be interesting to hear what the Ben Bernak has to say tomorrow.
$20 says it has something to do with more "quantitative easing". Or maybe, since the election is over, he won't? We can only hope.
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Old 12-11-2012, 20:06   #34
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One of the best ways I've heard recently of expressing the trouble we're in is this:

Every free-spending liberal loves to talk about the wonderful Clinton years, when there were actually budget surpluses. If, for each of the next 30 years, we had a surplus equal to the best of the Clinton years, we could pay back the total debt accumulated in just one year of Barack Obama.

We are way past the point of no return. When the inflationary effects of printing trillions of dollars kicks in and boosts the interest rate the government pays on the debt, the system will implode with lightning speed. Doubt that? 40% of the federal debt is in short-term notes of 12 months or less. Meaning they have to turn over trillions in debt every year!!!
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Old 12-11-2012, 20:09   #35
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One of the best ways I've heard recently of expressing the trouble we're in is this:

Every free-spending liberal loves to talk about the wonderful Clinton years, when there were actually budget surpluses. If, for each of the next 30 years, we had a surplus equal to the best of the Clinton years, we could pay back the total debt accumulated in just one year of Barack Obama.

We are way past the point of no return. When the inflationary effects of printing trillions of dollars kicks in and boosts the interest rate the government pays on the debt, the system will implode with lightning speed. Doubt that? 40% of the federal debt is in short-term notes of 12 months or less. Meaning they have to turn over trillions in debt every year!!!

Sh-h-h-h!
You're scaring the citizenry.
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Old 12-11-2012, 20:12   #36
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Argentina anyone?
Oh no. Much more exciting than that. This is the worlds reserve currency!
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Old 12-11-2012, 20:41   #37
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Oh no. Much more exciting than that. This is the worlds reserve currency!
Yes, but for how much longer...

I find it hypocritical that we constantly deride China for manipulating its currency when it has become such the norm here.
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TERM LIMITS NOW!!!

Last edited by QNman; 12-11-2012 at 20:42..
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Old 12-11-2012, 21:04   #38
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Taxing is the easy way out. The responsible thing to do would be to start going over all expenditures with a fine tooth comb, but that will never happen, so get ready for the tax man.
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Old 12-11-2012, 21:07   #39
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Taxing is the easy way out. The responsible thing to do would be to start going over all expenditures with a fine tooth comb, but that will never happen, so get ready for the tax man.
Inflation is a tax...
Quite literally so.

Inflation is the favorite tax of governments because you cannot evade it and almost no one blames the government for it.
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Old 12-11-2012, 21:38   #40
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Taxing is not a way out. Folks need to get that out of their heads. You cannot tax your way out of this mess.

a. Increasing taxes does not necessarily increase revenue. It isn't a static system.

b. Increasing taxes has a cooling effect on the economy, decreasing the base and increasing reliance on social welfare programs (increasing deficit spending).

c. There is not enough taxation possible to cover this.

Cutting spending and reducing taxes -- Pro Growth. Growth is the only way.

Stopping the spending trajectory AND cutting taxes and regulation will allow the economy to grow, increasing revenues to the treasury.

The only way to change the spending trajectory is to cut Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and DOD.

Be careful though! Medicare cuts don't mean fewer people or fewer things covered. Medicare cuts mean they pay providers less. That's it.

Last edited by certifiedfunds; 12-11-2012 at 21:39..
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