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Old 01-07-2013, 19:15   #1
UneasyRider
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Countdown to Currency Failure?

My friends teased me a bit when I predicted the failure of the currency almost 2 years ago. Initially my thoughts were how can this go on? After seeing it go on for years I changed my thinking to this. The beginning will be known when it goes public on main stream media that the math is impossible for paying off the debt. I think that time is now.

My examples are 2 extended pieces on FOX News (and I don't watch much news), a 90 minute documentary on the future demise of the dollar last month featuring a lot of very smart guys and this week on the Sunday shows, while he didn't say the word collapse, the host showed the math in a similar way to the way that I like to.

3,800,000,000,000 Yearly Spending
2,400,000,000,000 Yearly Tax Revenue
300,000,000,000 Yearly Interest on Debt
1,400,000,000,000 Yearly Deficit (with almost no interest)
16,500,000,000,000 Total National Debt

So you look at these numbers and tell me how it's mathematically possible to pay off the debt? It's not possible to balance the budget in any given year! All it takes is for people to realize this to start a run on the currency. Now I don't want to see a run on the currency, I just don't see how anything else is possible. I think that when the press latches on to this story (finally) it will be days, not weeks, before people don't want to take the dollar in this country or any other.

So the question is: What is the canary in the coal mine for a run on the currency? What signs should we be looking for?
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Old 01-07-2013, 19:34   #2
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What signs should we be looking for?
This!
- China refuses to accept the US Dollar.

China is not happy with America devaluing our dollar, because we owe them trillions of dollars.

In due time, if we continue to devalue our dollar against their wishes, they will put their foot down and begin to demand repayment only in Gold, or possibly even another form of payment.

Because all other currencies are backed by the US Dollar, every other currency will fail too. This will result in a domino effect that will take place very rapidly. I think within 24-48hrs. This global scenario will make our 2008 meltdown look like child's play.

Hence why trading out your easily manipulated US Dollar for Silver and Gold is important to do, now.

The US is a currency manipulator, And it will result in the demise of the dollar in due time.

Last edited by FloridaGun; 01-07-2013 at 20:10..
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Old 01-07-2013, 23:53   #3
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In due time?

A few years ago the Aussie $ was about 55 cents US.

Today it's about $1.05 US, and the papers here are predicting $1.25 in the next year or so.

Sound like the demise has well and truely started.

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Old 01-07-2013, 23:57   #4
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If businesses don't take dollars, what WILL they take?

They aren't set up to take anything else besides credit and cash. They just can't take in gold or silver or bullets or anything else as currency.
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Old 01-08-2013, 00:31   #5
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If businesses don't take dollars, what WILL they take?

They aren't set up to take anything else besides credit and cash. They just can't take in gold or silver or bullets or anything else as currency.
If the US Dollar is worth nothing. Silver, gold, bullets and anything else of intrinsic value will take its place. The fact that buissiness are not setup to accept anything other than dollars is exactly why it will be a huge mess.
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Old 01-08-2013, 03:33   #6
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Many things that you can keep your eye on.

I watch the Bond market. Once treasuries start to tank the game is over.

But by then it will be too late to do anything about it.

If one can one needs to start trading FRN's for things of value and move $ out of the country now.

Good luck.
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Old 01-08-2013, 03:44   #7
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I see an economic collapse being inevitable with the way we are running the nation. Big gov't is incapable of reigning in the expansion. However I don't see this happening quickly, which is concerning. I wish it would happen sooner, rather later so that I am not an old man trying to survive the collapse. Ideally, I wish our country would turn this around and it would not happen at all. However I just don't see that possibility.
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Old 01-08-2013, 07:54   #8
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Yep, when the dollar is no longer the accepted international trade unit, we are done.
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Old 01-08-2013, 08:48   #9
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The dollar already failed; people just haven't caught on yet.

The fact you predicted it two years ago and it hasn't happened just means the government has figured out a way to cook the books further.

I'm still riding my train predicting it will happen before 2017; a LOT of people are getting those first paychecks of the year and thinking WTH?
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Old 01-08-2013, 10:22   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UneasyRider View Post
the host showed the math in a similar way to the way that I like to.

3,800,000,000,000 Yearly Spending
2,400,000,000,000 Yearly Tax Revenue
300,000,000,000 Yearly Interest on Debt
1,400,000,000,000 Yearly Deficit (with almost no interest)
16,500,000,000,000 Total National Debt

So you look at these numbers and tell me how it's mathematically possible to pay off the debt? It's not possible to balance the budget in any given year! All it takes is for people to realize this to start a run on the currency.

Another way to look at it....(extrapolated from data sent to me by others...basically by removing zeros from the astronomical amounts above...in an attempt to put it all in a more digestible perspective)


Lets say you run a finance company in the ghetto of Chicago..

.. & this "community organizer" named Barry comes in..

.. & wants yet another loan!

He had conned another weak minded loan officer for the previous loans..

..but that loan officer was recently fired for his sizable portfolio of non-performing loans..

..basically that of "buying into" non-productive, entitlement mentality cons from street hustlers.


Barry also wants you to raise his already sky high credit limit.

You know from the word on the street & self admission Barry has previous (& maybe current) issues with expensive & illegal drugs such as cocaine.

He states he is employed as a "Harvard Professor"..

..but it is common knowledge he has only been a "guest lecturer" on occasion thru invites from his fellow leftist anarchist contacts infesting Harvard & other universities.


So....basically...the guy is a just a lifelong con artist...

..and wants you to buy into yet another of his street cons!


The money he wants to borrow will vanish yet again...

.. supporting his counterproductive habits, unsustainable finances, lavish lifestyle, community bribes & Ponzi Schemes..


His family's stated gross income is $21,700 last year.

But his family spent almost twice that amount...$38,200

...another $16,500 just put on the credit card!!

Outstanding balance on the credit card...a whopping $142,710

He is rapidly approaching the point where he will not be able to afford just the interest payment..

..much less ever pay back any of the principal!


And he comes in with a plan to make himself more solvent..

..basically to get another large loan & huge credit line increase!


He states he is going to reduce his spending by a laughable $38.50 a year ..

(or 5 years..the story changes frequently)..

..but wants a credit line increase maybe 44 times that amount!!






A reduction of only $38.50 ???













The real question is...

Are you going to buy into this.....AGAIN!!!???

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Old 01-08-2013, 10:32   #11
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The real question is...

Are you going to buy into this.....AGAIN!!!???

Real question #2 (if you are the finance company) is how are you going to collect the outstanding loans.

Answer: you won't
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Old 01-08-2013, 10:41   #12
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Originally Posted by pugman View Post
Real question #2 (if you are the finance company) is how are you going to collect the outstanding loans.

Answer: you won't
This is a mathematical given yet it is only acknowledged by a small percentage of the population. Fear makes an ostrich stick his head in the sand.

So take the average guy with a decent income who could prep for this at the last moment very well but the same move could devastate him if the timing is off. He needs a little warning when it gets very close to the time of failure.

I know the steps that I would take, what are the signs that you would look for that it is about to blow?
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Old 01-08-2013, 11:41   #13
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...move $ out of the country now...
Just wondering what places might seem better in the event of a global financial meltdown?
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Old 01-08-2013, 12:53   #14
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Originally Posted by UneasyRider View Post
This is a mathematical given yet it is only acknowledged by a small percentage of the population. Fear makes an ostrich stick his head in the sand.

So take the average guy with a decent income who could prep for this at the last moment very well but the same move could devastate him if the timing is off. He needs a little warning when it gets very close to the time of failure.

I know the steps that I would take, what are the signs that you would look for that it is about to blow?
The signs are all around us.

When I engage people in this conversation who are able to rationally discuss it without much emotion I always ask the same question – What are you seeing in the next five years which could be seen as a sign it won’t happen? The national debt continues to rise, politicians (intentionally not called leaders) have no plan or clue, the unemployment rate is stagnant, trust in government and the approval rating of Congress is at one of its lowest points ever, the Middle East is as problematic as ever, our trade deficits are increasing, immigration reform is a joke, the faith in the dollar is near an all-time low etc. Give me any good news you see in the next twelve months? The government’s toolbox has a single tool left: raising revenues. I sincerely think this first paycheck of the year where tax breaks expired might wake a lot of people up. Combine this with Obamacare and the rise in insurance premiums for folks and I bet paychecks will get trimmed 5-8%. For those who live paycheck to paycheck – that will hurt.

I read your posts and you and I generally agree. However, I don’t think your situation above is unrealistic. I doubt there will be much warning and timing something will be nearly impossible-I think in a real situation you would have no more than two weeks to get what you need. A coworker of mine lives 1.5 miles inland in NYC – after Sandy it took literally 48 hours for the shelves to be bare. Anyone with a bit of common sense can see its when not if. Based on your situation above I would say instead of prepping at the last moment and trying to time it and prep well, not do anything, or go all in now, be off by a few years, and be devastated I offer this simple solution: Why not go out and just buy an extra case of whatever you eat now? This way you are building up what you need without much pain. If you are off a few years, and prep at the last moment, then you are REALLY well off. If it happens too fast to react – you have something. If “it” never happens well my living relatives will have a lot of toothbrushes, TP, etc. to divide up.

Prepping isn’t a sprint – it’s a marathon

My well to do brother has a family of four including himself. They have 4 iPhones, 4 iPads, 5 very nice HDTVs, two new/newer cars (2010 Accord and a 2012 Toyota fully loaded Highlander), Netflix, all the PPV channels, Hulu+, an Xbox360, Wii and PS3. He only buys the best he can afford in everything. Case in point: He bought some carbon fiber/Titanium hammer. He paid something crazy for it like $250 but never uses it because he is afraid it will get scratched. Yet, he doesn’t have a single firearm in the house. They regularly run out of things in the home like Toilet paper? The home’s pantry is empty most days and they eat out/order in probably 3 or more times a week. Their cars are always on empty even though they pass a gas station nearly every day. I’ve tried using this very example with him: you know you will run out of gas, you pass a station every day, but never fill up. Some day you will be stranded on the side of the road. He simply doesn’t listen.

If I knew the exact sign I would be a prophet.

Some “6 pack” real world possibilities which light the fuse? Declaration of martial law. The first “from my cold dead hands” victim who refuses to give up a firearm if a ban is passed and gets shot. Another mass school shooting. A bailout of a top ten economy like Italy (#8) or France (#5), the EU being dissolved or Germany leaving it.

I basically prep on the assumption “it” will happen.
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Old 01-08-2013, 14:11   #15
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When The Ben Barnanke is unable to keep interest rates down and they start rising, that's when you will know the end game is near. The Fed is the only thing keeping the system going.

Last edited by cowboy1964; 01-08-2013 at 14:12..
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Old 01-08-2013, 14:30   #16
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When The Ben Barnanke is unable to keep interest rates down and they start rising, that's when you will know the end game is near. The Fed is the only thing keeping the system going.
and the world trust into our system.
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Old 01-08-2013, 14:55   #17
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Because all other currencies are backed by the US Dollar, every other currency will fail too.
Other currencies are not "backed" by the U.S. dollar. The U.S. is the #1 "reserve currency" though.

Survival/Preparedness Forum

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Old 01-08-2013, 15:07   #18
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When The Ben Barnanke is unable to keep interest rates down and they start rising, that's when you will know the end game is near. The Fed is the only thing keeping the system going.
This is on my list as an indicator too!
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Old 01-08-2013, 15:16   #19
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I read your posts and you and I generally agree. However, I don’t think your situation above is unrealistic. I doubt there will be much warning and timing something will be nearly impossible-I think in a real situation you would have no more than two weeks to get what you need. A coworker of mine lives 1.5 miles inland in NYC – after Sandy it took literally 48 hours for the shelves to be bare. Anyone with a bit of common sense can see its when not if. Based on your situation above I would say instead of prepping at the last moment and trying to time it and prep well, not do anything, or go all in now, be off by a few years, and be devastated I offer this simple solution: Why not go out and just buy an extra case of whatever you eat now? This way you are building up what you need without much pain. If you are off a few years, and prep at the last moment, then you are REALLY well off. If it happens too fast to react – you have something. If “it” never happens well my living relatives will have a lot of toothbrushes, TP, etc. to divide up.

Prepping isn’t a sprint – it’s a marathon
I am looking for any time that I can get to make any move that I can. Prep now? Sure. Put everything you have into it? Only on an immediate threat.

I would love to have two days let alone two weeks.
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Old 01-08-2013, 16:18   #20
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Other currencies are not "backed" by the U.S. dollar. The U.S. is the #1 "reserve currency" though.

Survival/Preparedness Forum

Ok, fine not "backed" but "reserve". Still really bad though!

And it would still have an extreme negative effect on other currencies, causing some if not all to fail.
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Old 01-08-2013, 17:21   #21
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I was listening to POTUS tonight on the way to Publix (I know) and they had a call in show about currency and there was not a single believer in it. Most everyone feels like it's going to lose value but nobody knows how much.

I would love to know if anyone else hears stuff like this.
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Old 01-08-2013, 17:45   #22
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This!
- China refuses to accept the US Dollar.

China is not happy with America devaluing our dollar, because we owe them trillions of dollars.

In due time, if we continue to devalue our dollar against their wishes, they will put their foot down and begin to demand repayment only in Gold, or possibly even another form of payment.

Because all other currencies are backed by the US Dollar, every other currency will fail too. This will result in a domino effect that will take place very rapidly. I think within 24-48hrs. This global scenario will make our 2008 meltdown look like child's play.

Hence why trading out your easily manipulated US Dollar for Silver and Gold is important to do, now.

The US is a currency manipulator, And it will result in the demise of the dollar in due time.

Our dollar does not really devalue much against the chinese currency. The Yuan was historically pegged against the dollar. Although it is not technically still pegged to the dollar, if the dollar drops so does the Yuan. In 2012 I believe the Juan actually devalued a bit against the dollar.


And finally, The dollar is gaining strength in the last 24 months on world markets.

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Old 01-08-2013, 18:07   #23
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This will become a problem in the future if we continue down this path.

I don't believe it'll happen before 2016.
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Old 01-08-2013, 18:08   #24
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For all the reasons mentioned here, we recently rearranged the tail-end of the financing we have left on the company we bought nearly four years ago; extending the remaining debt out from 14 months to 45. I hate debt, and hate extending debt, but this was a cash-flow decision. Doing what we did reduces the minimum monthly debt-service payment by almost $5000, improving cash flow by that much; and the way I’m afraid the economy is likely to go, I believe the cash flow improvement is very likely to be a good thing. Bear in mind there’s no early-payment penalty, so we can go ahead and make the original full payment every month and still pay off in the original time frame if we want. As much as I hate carrying any debt, even if we go ‘worst case’ and do run the full 45 months we’ll still have the entire company and building paid for before I turn 60.

I love our building - a too-big-for-us concrete-aggregate and glass building, on the busiest section of 'highway' in the county.

(The 'too-big' issue is handled by leasing out about a third of it to another company. Again, gotta think cash-flow...)

So short version is, while we still have the option of continuing to make the same payments we’ve been doing all along, this change reduces the minimum required payment; which gives us some additional leverage and ‘breathing room’ via the option of making smaller payments if we need it. And I’m afraid we might. We ALL might.

Economically speaking (while I wouldn’t at ALL mind being wrong), I think we’ve genuinely reached the “circle the wagons” point in time.
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Old 01-08-2013, 18:33   #25
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And finally, The dollar is gaining strength in the last 24 months on world markets.
That's because we're 16 trillion in debt with massive deflationary pressure. I personally think the feds quantitative easing is as much to counter this pressure as it is to "stimulate" a damned thing. When the music stops, we will find the government will try to print its way out of the mess. With enough inflation, the debt won't look so bad.

If we are able to "keep it together" without a total collapse, or if there is you'll have to wait for the dust to settle, there will be a massive wealth transfer to those who exchanged their "cash" for metals. Given enough time, I just don't see any way out of this other than hyperinflation.

I would never be so pretentious to say "that's how it's going to be," but a LOT of Americans agree that the writing is on the wall. Those that don't see it or choose to ignore it have only "But this is America, that will never happen" to back them up, and little else.
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