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Old 01-29-2013, 04:28   #1
DAIadvisor
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Why everything is gone

So I've been thinking about the reasons why everyone is out of stock on everything.. Here's my explanation.

Reason 1: There was never that much available in the first place. I mean not every day someone goes out and drops 1k + on a EBR or related components. Sometimes there's a waiting list to get your stuff even without the madness that ensued after Sandy Hook. I mean yes, there is a reasonable amount of rifles out there for normal sales, but if panic hits, everything dries up and it takes time to spin up production.

Reason 2: With prices artificially inflated, there's no real reason for manufacturers to increase production. If I can sell a lower for 300 vs. 85, why would I ever make more than I need to maintain that profit margin?

Thoughts?
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Old 01-29-2013, 04:33   #2
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There was plenty on the shelves and people bought it all faster than the the manufacturers and distributors could replace it, simple as that. I wasn't aware there was anybody who didn't already know that, but it doesn't require any complex explanation - even places as filled with AR's and such as Bud's sold out.
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Old 01-29-2013, 04:44   #3
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So you don't think it has anything to do with millions of buyers who normally wouldn't be buying, coming out of the woodwork, and buying everything they could ever imagine wanting or needing? And other millions of existing shooters, who decided to go on and pull the trigger on their wishlist of ammo, parts, and guns?

Interesting perspective.
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Old 01-29-2013, 05:44   #4
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if every new gun buyer just wants to go shoot their brand new gun, they buy 2 boxes of ammo and presto, we have a run on ammo

they say the NICS doubled last year so the ammo and gun manufacturers got caught flatfooted.

and I believe they are running as fast as they can to resupply but now the citizens hear about the ammo shortage so they go buy all that is on the shelves so the cycle continues.

I don't think the factories are likely to do much expanding of production until they see how the law situation shakes out plus the 0bamma care coming this year
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Old 01-29-2013, 06:28   #5
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I find 100X the demand to be the simpler and more plausible explanation. With the exception of those who are convinced this will all blow over in a few months (Obama and Feinstein must be stepping down at that time), everyone else is buying everything they can.

My guess is that things will be like this for a good 2-3 years, it not more, simply because even if, legislatively, nothing much happens, people won't want to be caught with their pants down again. So the stocking up will continue for a long time.

It's funny, I was just thinking a couple months ago, "Gee, everyone and his brother has got cases of Federal XM193 and XM855 on sale, maybe I should pick up some more." I didn't because I barely have any more room for it.

Yep, kicking myself now...

People are going to start stocking things they never did before. I bet you money that people will now have 5-10 stripped lowers on hand. For $89-$110, why not? Lower parts kits are the new currency.

I don't see this slowing down any time soon. Current back orders are out a year, then once prices start to relax there will be another run, the cycle will repeat.

Madness? Hysteria? Panic? Call it what you will, but it's here for the foreseeable future.

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Old 01-29-2013, 07:08   #6
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I been calling several dealers and they tell me they can’t get supply from the factories
I think they holding back on new shipments. The dealers been out of guns for over a month
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Old 01-29-2013, 07:19   #7
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I been calling several dealers and they tell me they can’t get supply from the factories
I think they holding back on new shipments. The dealers been out of guns for over a month
You believe that "the factories" are deliberately not shipping products?

Because why?

You do know that there are distributors involved, right?

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Old 01-29-2013, 07:29   #8
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J frames have been hard for my local stores to get for about a year.
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Old 01-29-2013, 08:01   #9
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There's ONLY ONE REASON......PANIC.
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Old 01-29-2013, 08:04   #10
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Orrrr a bunch of people living in moms basement with money to burn and watching too much doomsday preppers freaked out and bought anything/everything firearm related for no other reason than panic


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Old 01-29-2013, 08:28   #11
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Originally Posted by M&P15T View Post
You believe that "the factories" are deliberately not shipping products?...
I don't believe that either. Times have changed and I doubt that any factory builds anything that's not ordered (and subsequently paid for) by a distributor.

BTW, most of the price gouging is done by the dealers, not the manufacturers (who stand to gain nothing by slowing down deliveries).
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Old 01-29-2013, 09:16   #12
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Economics 101
page 1
Supply & Demand
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Old 01-29-2013, 09:24   #13
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On one hand I hate the fact that I cant build another one if I wanted, on the other I'm happy to see AR's in more peoples hands. Even if they just are panic buying and keeping them in the box or a safe. Now all these panic buyers need to step up and join the NRA and start contacting all their elected officials.
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Old 01-29-2013, 09:58   #14
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I have been wondering the same thing. With all the AR15 companies out there, why is it taking them so long to get more product out the door?
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Old 01-29-2013, 10:11   #15
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Originally Posted by Cole125 View Post
I have been wondering the same thing. With all the AR15 companies out there, why is it taking them so long to get more product out the door?
Who says they aren't? I had some stuff on back order that showed up within a couple weeks. I am expecting the rest to show up in the next few. I think we just don't see the ramp up because the retailers are just fulfilling back orders.

Another way to ask that question is when might things start to be in stock again. I predict we are a long time away from that.

The simple fact is that very few people seem to share the confidence that "nothing" is going to happen. Will be interesting to see who is right.

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Old 01-29-2013, 10:28   #16
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Mstarmer

They have the right idea. Skip an accessory and join the NRA.
Contact our government officials. Join the pro 2nd amendment struggle.
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Old 01-29-2013, 10:28   #17
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This is going to go on for awhile. I don't see it ending any time soon. It is much worse this time around.

People aren't going to stop buying until they have a closet full of ammo, mags and anything else that might be banned in the future.
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Old 01-29-2013, 17:03   #18
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Originally Posted by Cole125 View Post
I have been wondering the same thing. With all the AR15 companies out there, why is it taking them so long to get more product out the door?
When demand raises by1000%, manufacturers and their sub-contractors have a difficult decision to make. They can hire more people temporarily, and then be forced to lay them off later, to meet demand.

Or, they can stick with the work-force they have, and produce what they can.

But there are more variables.

Manufacturing (assembling) ARs takes some training and experience. It takes time to get new employees up and running. Also, the manufacturers are at the mercy of their sub-contractors, who face exactly the same dilema about hiring new employees.

And when we're talking about things like lowers, there really isn't very many manufacturers of them. There's a few companies that make the same parts for many, many AR producers with names we're familiar with.
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Old 01-29-2013, 17:30   #19
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Lots of people dragging their feet on a purchase they wanted. Lots of people with a few guns on the list and had been putting it off until someone tells them they may not be able to own it a year from now.
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Old 01-29-2013, 17:45   #20
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Blame Bush
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Old 01-29-2013, 18:02   #21
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DAIadvisor, you forgot reason #3.

People know our govt. is hosing us daily and prepping to deliver BOHICA big-time. DHS and the .mil are training in cities now for whatever evil they are going to rain on us and people want to be armed.
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Old 01-29-2013, 18:06   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G-nineteen View Post
Economics 101
page 1
Supply & Demand
Exactly...

When prices are high supply will follow. ALWAYS

There's such a fundamental lack of economic education on display here at times that it no longer shocks me.


Doesn't mean supply ramps up overnight. There are many obstacles to that. Doesn't mean all manufacturers can ramp up supply. It takes CAPITAL to increase production. There are many scenarios where increased sales can lead to a decrease in cash flow and reduced ability to expand. This often bites small business owners in the butt when they enjoy early success with their product line...they can find themselves with an empty bank account! (It takes time for sales revenue to catch up with cost of doing business--shipping, labor, offering credit-terms to clients etc.)

In any case...when prices are high supply will follow. ALWAYS. Again, not next month. But soon enough.

Trust me--there's not one manufacturer out there right now holding back on production or supply because prices are high. Not even the retarded ones. This is the time to MOVE product!
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Old 01-29-2013, 18:24   #23
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Lots of people dragging their feet on a purchase they wanted. Lots of people with a few guns on the list and had been putting it off until someone tells them they may not be able to own it a year from now.
Well, i guess if you wanted it. Why not? Next, the goverment is going to say cars kill, and every one has to buy a smart car, with a govenor on it so it won't go over 55 mph.
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Old 01-29-2013, 18:27   #24
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There's ONLY ONE REASON......PANIC.
exactly!

factories wouldn't take a chance of sitting on inventory with the chance of a ban being rammed through, and getting stuck with it, knowing it's at least a decade before they can move it out. that's be business suicide.
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Old 01-29-2013, 19:05   #25
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The real answer to "Are they price gouging or not?" is to find out if the distributor's are getting firearms at the normal rate and turning around to sell them for double or triple or if they are seeing price hikes as well.
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