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Old 10-08-2006, 23:14   #1
antediluvianist
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North Korean nuclear detonation and Asian stockmarkets, currencies

South Korean stock markets way down after the North Korean nuclear test. Stockmarkets all over Asia down too. Asian currencies down also.

I am hoping this will be just a short-term phenomenon. Local stock prices may very well drop tomorrow and I will buy - starting with the gold stocks since gold prices tend to go up during times of world crisis. This appears to be a "Contrarian" buying opportunity.

Unfortunately it may also drive away Western investors for a while too, and we need those guys to keep our local stockmarket prices up (foreigners contribute very much to demand for local shares, which drives up local stockmarket prices by the law of supply and demand.)
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Old 10-08-2006, 23:49   #2
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Hello sir! I've been planning to get my feet wet on the stock market since the 17% NPAT is considered too low by some professors making a killing in the stock market. In anycase gold have been dropping like a dead fly lately because world prices have been dropping. Would this week be a good time to buy? I've attended the Citisec seminar but have not signed up yet.
BTW sir when will you have time to go shoot? I've been wanting to try your S&W since that time you showed it to me.
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Old 10-09-2006, 01:02   #3
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Wow I haven't shot in such a long time that my PTT has lapsed.

Yes, wait for market to keep dropping, just watch it. I am interested in APXB (the "B" shares of Apex Mining), and PXB (the "B" shares of Philex Mining.)

Of course if some selected others drop too, there will be opportunities. I can post some recommendations tomorrow after I observe the degree of drop.
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Old 10-09-2006, 05:26   #4
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Philippine forex did not really quite move amidst the nuclear testing. I believe the local currency is in a catch up phase with the other Asian currencies unless of course there would be some bad news that would directly affect the country, the peso is expected to strengthen further until the end of the year.

As for stocks, unfortunately these seem to be hot money all along and are not real investments and therefore could easily be moved out. Then again, the US seems to be not a good economy to invest in at the moment.
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Old 10-09-2006, 10:17   #5
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Hope the nuclear testing won't be used as an excuse to raise fuel prices again. Oil has been steadily dropping and barely moved even when OPEC announced production cuts. It drops by about $2.00 and manages a modest gain of approximately $0.60/bbl. When the oil price broke the $59.00/bbl mark, analysts projected a downward trend for it. No matter how traders try to prop up the price of oil, the market barely reacts. There's even projections of oil prices within the $40.00-$45.00/bbl range by the end of the decade.

Pork belly, lean pork, orange juice and gold futures are down. Even the domestic price of sugar has gone down from a high of P1,300.00 per 50 kilo bag to just P980.00. World prices for sugar have been steadily going down because of the downward trend of the prices of oil. Countries producing ethanol from sugar may find ethanol expensive to produce and they might again sell sugar to the world market, thereby creating a glut in the world supply. There's even speculation that smuggled sugar has been slowly entering the country. But as Ante has said, gold prices might be on the way up pretty soon because of the foreseen instability in the Asian region.

Watch out for wheat prices, though. It's been steadily going up because of increased consumption of and the drought affecting wheat-producing regions.
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Old 10-09-2006, 18:42   #6
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U.S. markets ended UP yesterday at the close. Looks like no panic over N. Korea. Asian markets may return to normal in a few days.
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Old 10-09-2006, 21:42   #7
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well, we still have to see how this situation develops... I think stocks will be stagnant and will lose the momentum it has gained in the past few days.....
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Old 10-09-2006, 21:51   #8
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[QUOTE]Originally posted by isuzu
[B]Hope the nuclear testing won't be used as an excuse to raise fuel prices again. Oil has been steadily dropping and barely moved even when OPEC announced production cuts. It will drop by about $2.00 and gain only approximately $0.60/bbl. When the oil price broke the $59.00/bbl mark, analysts projected a downward trend for it. No matter how traders try to prop up the price of oil, the market barely reacts. There's even projections of oil prices within the $40.00-$45.00/bbl range by the end of the decade.

I dont know but I am just wondering if the upcoming mid-term elections here in the USA have something to do with the declining oil prices. Parang style dyan sa atin sa Pinas na nagpapa pogi ang mga politiko. JMHO.
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Old 10-10-2006, 19:09   #9
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Oil closed today at $58.52/bbl. The market didn't even react to the N. Korean nuclear threat or OPEC's announcement to cut production.
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Old 10-11-2006, 01:22   #10
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Good Bad

The good thing with our PESO getting stronger is.....?????

I think this is totally BS, for us middle class earner we can't feel the effect of a strong PESO because commodity prices don't go down fast enough, mortgage does not go down, tuitions does not go down, school bus fees does not go down, our DOLLAR remittance is 5 PESO lower now compared to the same month last year but our salary here abroad does not increase by more than 3% per year so the HELL with a Stronger PESO.

People appreciate what we see and feel, and I see a big drop in my remittance without the possibility of me getting a pay raise in this hellhole and my family suffers financially due to this BS of stronger PESO.

Just my 2 cents, and now I'm sure why FILIPINOS don't want to stay in the Philippines just sickening.
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Old 10-11-2006, 02:29   #11
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When the peso strengthens, there are winners and losers. As a dollar earner, you are one of the losers. But if you were an importer of medical equipment, as just one example, you would win.

When the peso weakens, other people lose and you win.

Not everybody wins and loses at the same time. That's just how it is.
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Old 10-11-2006, 17:31   #12
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Quote:
Originally posted by antediluvianist
When the peso strengthens, there are winners and losers. As a dollar earner, you are one of the losers. But if you were an importer of medical equipment, as just one example, you would win.

When the peso weakens, other people lose and you win.

Not everybody wins and loses at the same time. That's just how it is.
Yup! Exporters also lose.
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Old 10-11-2006, 17:58   #13
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Re: Good Bad

Quote:
Originally posted by charlie-xray
The good thing with our PESO getting stronger is.....?????

I think this is totally BS, for us middle class earner we can't feel the effect of a strong PESO because commodity prices don't go down fast enough, mortgage does not go down, tuitions does not go down, school bus fees does not go down, our DOLLAR remittance is 5 PESO lower now compared to the same month last year but our salary here abroad does not increase by more than 3% per year so the HELL with a Stronger PESO.

People appreciate what we see and feel, and I see a big drop in my remittance without the possibility of me getting a pay raise in this hellhole and my family suffers financially due to this BS of stronger PESO.

Just my 2 cents, and now I'm sure why FILIPINOS don't want to stay in the Philippines just sickening.
I guess we'll just have to adjust to the situation. As I've said in my other (previous) post, I believe that the peso has hit rock bottom and there's no other way but up. Couple that with a weak US dollar. The US economy is not doing as well as it should be. The housing bubble in the US has also burst. The average house price here has dropped by about $10,000-$20,000. As early as now, there are already natural gas workers that have been laid off the job due to low natural gas prices.

Sugar has gone down from P1,300.00 to P980.00/ 50 kilo bag. We don't blame anybody. We'll have to adjust in order to remain profitable.

It's a cycle. We'll just have to have a keen eye and watch out for changes.
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Last edited by isuzu; 10-11-2006 at 21:45..
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Old 10-11-2006, 18:02   #14
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isn't it a good economy has to have a steady currency. example is japan, china , india etc. philex moves like a ping pong ball indicate a weakness . sure i earn $$$ so i lose,,,, hmmmm. this doesn't bother me coz my retirement is in time deposit over in ucpb,metrobank,bpi,chinabank hehehehe dami no.... kinalat ko lang para safe. para pag gurang na , may pang goodtime pa....hehehehe

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Old 10-11-2006, 19:45   #15
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Old 10-12-2006, 02:47   #16
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aba e di nag-gu goodtime ka na asintaderoche? bwa ha ha ha. Peace tayo.
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Old 10-12-2006, 06:56   #17
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Oil closed at $57.78/barrel. Won't be long until it hits the $55.00/bbl mark as analysts have predicted.

Sugar is also taking a beating. The world market had a high of $0.19/lb. Now, it's just hovering at around $0.10/lb.

Domestic price for sugar is in the P930.00/ 50 kg. bag range from a high of P1,380.00/ 50 kg bag.
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